The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and runs through November 30. As of June 9, no Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes have formed yet.
NOAA estimates:
- 55% chance of a below-normal season
- 35% chance of a near-normal season
- 10% chance of an above-normal season
Why Is 2026 Expected To Be Quieter?
Meteorologists expect a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and intensify.
Peak Hurricane Season Is Still Ahead
Even in a quieter year, the most active part of hurricane season occurs between mid-August and mid-October, with the climatological peak around September 10.
Important Reminder
A below-normal season does not mean a safe season. Some of the most destructive U.S. hurricanes have occurred during otherwise quiet years. It only takes one landfalling major hurricane to create a disastrous season for a community.
