Two Tropical Areas of Interest Being Monitored in the Eastern Pacific
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring two tropical areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, both located well offshore of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. One disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm within hours, while another has a high probability of developing later this week.
Residents and mariners along the Pacific shipping routes should continue monitoring official forecasts as the eastern Pacific hurricane season remains active.
Area of Interest #1: 100% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation
The most significant disturbance is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly organized while producing gusty winds around a tropical wave. Environmental conditions remain favorable for additional strengthening.
Forecasters expect a tropical depression or tropical storm to form later today or tonight as the system tracks generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the Mexican coastline.
Development Outlook
- 48-hour chance: High
- 7-day chance: 100%
- Expected movement: West-northwest
- Primary impact: Open waters of the Eastern Pacific
At this time, no direct impacts to land are expected because the system is forecast to remain well offshore.
Area of Interest #2: 70% Chance of Development
A second disturbance is forecast to develop later this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
An area of low pressure is expected to form, and environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual organization. Forecast models indicate that a tropical depression is likely to develop by the end of the weekend while moving generally west-northwestward over the open Pacific.
Development Outlook
- 48-hour chance: Low
- 7-day chance: 70%
- Expected movement: West-northwest
- Development window: Late week into the weekend
Although this system is still organizing, conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Current Forecast
Both tropical disturbances are forecast to remain well offshore of Mexico during their development. Even without expected landfall, these systems are important to monitor because forecast tracks and intensity can change over time.
The first disturbance is expected to become the next named tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific if it reaches tropical storm strength. The second system could follow shortly afterward if development continues through the weekend.
What to Watch
- Formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today or tonight from the first disturbance.
- Gradual organization of the second low-pressure system later this week.
- Updated forecasts regarding track and intensity from the National Hurricane Center.
- Potential impacts to marine interests across the Eastern Pacific.
Radar Watch HQ will continue providing updates as these tropical systems evolve throughout the week.
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